Odds of Success

I read a recent comment by the former President Bill Clinton today, wherein he said that there is a fifty-fifty chance that the current peace talks would result in peace between Israel and the Palestinians. I am both amused and appalled at the statement. All the money, influence and good will in the world that we have thrown at the Middle-east conflict issue and all we get is a fifty-fifty chance at peace.

If this was a consulting company and they offered a fifty-fifty chance at success to their client, how far do you think they would go? I doubt very much they would get past the front door, forget the Board Room.

And, this brings me to the point of risk. If someone predicted a fifty-fifty chance of rain, would you carry an umbrella? If someone offered you a fifty-fifty chance of winning the lottery, would you bet your life savings? Getting caught in a downpour is not a life threatening condition for most people so the risk acceptance is much higher. Losing your life savings on the other hand can be very uncomfortable so the risk acceptance might be lower for most rational people.

So, why is it that when the odds of a peace deal are fifty-fifty, do we accept the risk? Because as human beings we are inherently hopeful. Having accepted that the human spirit drives us to hope when no reason can be found, fight even when the odds of victory are slim, we still deserve leaders who will work tirelessly to increase the odds of success in our favor rather than it being just a toss up in the air.